The Future of Asian Geopolitics
A good piece at the Atlantic Community that seeks to divine the future of geopolitics in the East. Naturally, as many analysts believe power is inexrably shifting from West to East, this will be worth monitoring at great length.
I offer a few comments,
"I think the final sentence in this piece points to a description of exactly how the geopolitics of Asia is shaping up, at least with consideration of the desires the leading powers of influence in the region:
"But there can be no denying that these three leading Asian powers and the US have different playbooks: America wants a uni-polar world but a multi-polar Asia; China seeks a multi-polar world but a uni-polar Asia; and Japan and India desire a multi-polar Asia and a multi-polar world."
So many differing percpetions raises the question as to how relations will be managed long-term. I would envision the following as a very plausible scenario:
* Japan to decline due to demographic declines, but at the same time expand military power (possibly nuclear) as America retrenches
* China to remain growing, but at slower rates thus creating more internal instability than many might consider
* India to grow in influence as it is forced to play a role in stabilizing Afghanistan and keeping Pakistan from becoming a vortex of Islamist hatreds that spill over
* The U.S. attempting to hedge its bets on China and its role as a "responsible stakeholder" while trying to keep Japan from "going its own way" and quietly encouraging the greater influence of India.
It will be a balancing act. There will be room for miscalculation. Though unlikely to explode like Europe circa 1914, Asia does contain seeds of potential explosive power."
I offer a few comments,
"I think the final sentence in this piece points to a description of exactly how the geopolitics of Asia is shaping up, at least with consideration of the desires the leading powers of influence in the region:
"But there can be no denying that these three leading Asian powers and the US have different playbooks: America wants a uni-polar world but a multi-polar Asia; China seeks a multi-polar world but a uni-polar Asia; and Japan and India desire a multi-polar Asia and a multi-polar world."
So many differing percpetions raises the question as to how relations will be managed long-term. I would envision the following as a very plausible scenario:
* Japan to decline due to demographic declines, but at the same time expand military power (possibly nuclear) as America retrenches
* China to remain growing, but at slower rates thus creating more internal instability than many might consider
* India to grow in influence as it is forced to play a role in stabilizing Afghanistan and keeping Pakistan from becoming a vortex of Islamist hatreds that spill over
* The U.S. attempting to hedge its bets on China and its role as a "responsible stakeholder" while trying to keep Japan from "going its own way" and quietly encouraging the greater influence of India.
It will be a balancing act. There will be room for miscalculation. Though unlikely to explode like Europe circa 1914, Asia does contain seeds of potential explosive power."
Comments