With the Holidays proving a distraction for many Americans, several major news events have been taking place.  Of course, there was the most recent terrorist plot to blow up a plane landing in Detroit. (here's a background for context from teh Council on Foreign Relations)  However, as disturbing as that is, the event with the potential for long-term impact is in Iran as a new round of protests following the death of anti-regime cleric have led to security forces firing on crowds and apparently killing several. 

There are now many comments on the Internet comparing the Supreme Leader, Ali Khameini, to the Shah as if this is rapidly becoming an Islamic Revolution in reverse.

Should that be the case, it would be momentous.  The 1979 Iranian Islamic revolution was a watershed that changed relations in the entire region for three decades.  A reversal of some kind would be dramatic, but I suspect, the outcome will be less than imagined.

Even should Khameini and even the President, America's favorite boogeyman Mahmoud Ahmadinejad get overthrown (still a long way off), the prospects of Iran flowering into a Western style, liberal democracy is extremely unlikely.  The probable beneficiary would be Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former Iranian President and while considered "moderate" by the standard of Ahmadinejad, is no western democrat.  He is still an Islamist, at least officially, and actually represents a more subversive challenge to policy in the region as he is likely to pursue similar ends as Khameini and Ahmadinejad, but in far less overt ways.

We are witnessing the potential for major change, but our enthusiasm should be appropriately tempered.  Here is some background from Stratfor on key figures and cleavages within the Iranian ruling elite to help make sense of this facts moving situation.