A Little Sobriety on China
While not uncommon for some analysts to point out that the hype on China's long-term growth may be a bit much, those views are still in the minority. Indeed, most business analysts and political forecasters seem quite assured that China will overtake the US as the world's single largest economy within two decades. While most acknowledge that per capita wealth will lag far behing the US (and most western nations), this expectation of China's looming Asian ascendancy shades many policymaker views.
This sober background from the venerable Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)outlines, quite reasonably, why these expectations may be a bit on the pollyanaish side. Of course, China could meet, or even exceed these expectations, but it is equally possible that it may fall very much short. The background makes clear its export driven economic growth may be coming to an end, its lack of effective law may constrain the type of investment needed to maintain growth rates comparable to recent years, and intenral political challenges may also hamsting some growth.
Another reason why my below piece on hedging being a wise strategy makes sense.
Posted by Greg R Lawson at 12/15/2011 4:44 PM 
Categories: China US Economics
Tags: China US Economics
Categories: China US Economics
Tags: China US Economics
Comments