A New Iranian Revolution?

With all of the news continuing to pour out of Iran, it is a futile task to try to stay on top of the "latest news."  It also seems futile to attempt to place the last week of protests within any historical context given that the outcome is murky as are the motivations of so many key players in the drama.

Of course, the video of the young woman, "Neda" has amped the emotion of the moment as has domestic politics in the United States where President Obama has come under increasing pressure to respond forcefully in favor of the protestors.

With the nuclear issue and proliferation more generally very much hanging in the balance on the Iran question, the nature of the regime that emerges from this turmoil will be key.

That said, several good articles have outlined the situation well.  First, Fareed Zakaria essentially says the revolutionary regime in Tehran is now completely delegitimized.  Even if it maintains power (as he sees as likely), the rickety edifice of the regime's theocracy will not continue to function under the illusion that it speaks with the wisdom of the Imam.  It will now be a regime of brute force.

Meanwhile, Stratfor downplays that this is really a revolution and casts the events as a struggle amongst the Iranian elite.  The clerics backed Mousavi because he would make it harder to isolate the regime and would protect their perrogatives, while others supported Ahmadinejad because of his criticisms of the cleric's excesses and "betrayal of the revolution."

Whether Mousavi or Ahmadinejad won mattered more to the internal elites of Iran than to the West because there was no substantive difference between them on policies of interest to the West and particularly the United States. 

As for the protestors, Stratfor questions whether they really represent all that much of the population and notes their apparent "western" appearance vs. the more traditional population which still is a majority.

Personally, I think Iran is unstable now less because of any desire to "westernize" and more because of internal power games.  The visually stunning images and video of protests is reminiscient of protests during our own Vietnam era (as I have alluded to before).  It represents a minority, even if it is a vocal and technologically skilled minority. 

Iran may change some, but not in any way that are beneficial for the United States.  I simply do not think this is a revolution and the "legitimacy" Zakaria asserts has been blown by Supreme Leader Khameini may be highly overrated.  Brute force works when employed against a group that is isolated. 

 del.icio.us  Stumbleupon  Technorati  Digg 

 

What did you think of this article?




Trackbacks
  • No trackbacks exist for this entry.
Comments
  • No comments exist for this entry.
Leave a comment

Submitted comments will be subject to moderation before being displayed.

 Enter the above security code (required)

 Name

 Email (will not be published)

 Website

Your comment is 0 characters limited to 3000 characters.