Debating China's Future
While the Middle East occupies center stage at the moment in the American conscience as it relates to foreign policy, it is our relationship with China that will determine the 21st Century. Of course, really, that relationship will impact everything. From economic to military policy. It will impact our relations with Europe and, especially, with everyone in Asia from India to Japan to Australia and the Koreas.
This article is a compendium of both American and Chinese academics looking at where things are likely to go in this pivotal relationship. Below is the introduction.
These short essays would otherwise comprise another variant of “China’s rising,” however, a subtle but important shift has taken place in the discourse. Implicit in most of these think pieces is the assumption that, at least in relative terms, China’s rise is a fait accompli. Even five years ago, China’s rise was spoken of as a work in progress. Now, its ascendance, in an economic sense, has reached a certain plateau. Even among those who emphasize the salience of China’s internal contradictions as the key to its future, no one disagrees that those domestic issues themselves are a result of China’s impressive level of progress.
A number of conclusions flow from this. The certainty of China’s specific economic, political or military attainments is juxtaposed with the uncertainty of how China will employ its new-found progress. The discussion has shifted from means to intent, orientation and motivation. Although China’s material rise is indisputable, its direction is highly uncertain. The second phase of China’s ascendancy will be a far more complex one to handle, as many point out, both for China, initiating it and those countries on the receiving end.
Perhaps more pertinent than outsiders’ peering in with a sense of unease, China herself is not sure.






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