The Middle Eastern Cold War
The thoughts expressed here by Thomas "The World is Flat" Friedman are not not novel. Anyone observing the Middle East today knows that we are in a serious geopolitical struggle over influence in the Middle East with Iran. Friedman uses the provocative language of this being a new Cold War. I think that is clearly hyperbolic, though it does provide a framework within which to view this struggle.
Iraq is now less about Iraq and a whole lot more about Iran. Think about, the revival of the Sunni-Shiite fault lines in the region along with the less spoken of but ever present Persian-Arab fault lines are here. Also, traditional balance of power politics is here. Finally, we even have a possible sprinkling of the eschatological as well (with Iranian President Ahmadinejad's perpetually aggressive rhetoric).
The new struggles in Lebanon are part and parcel of the on aagain off again problems in Iraq with sometime Iranian proxy Moqtada al-Sadr. This region continues to be the tinderbox of the world. For the moment, I think we will remain "Cold" and not "Hot" battling through proxies as opposed to directly confronting each other with anything other than bellicose word choices. However, this remains a problem that could blow up anytime. With the price of oil continuing to be a dominant source of global economic uncertainty and anxiety, everyone is watching with baited breat to see what happens next.
Here is another great piece that examines the subtle complexities emerging in the region from a veteran Indian diplomat.
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