North Korea's Upper Hand
Former US Ambassador to the UN and maestro of controversy John Bolton writes an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. No surprise that it is a criticism of current diplomatic efforts with North Korea. Largely, I find his arguments valid. I do not believe that the regime of Kim-Jong-il is one that can ever be trusted. However, we are not currently in a position to force the issue beyond the sanctions we have imposed, the Proliferation Security Initiative, and diplomatic efforts. It is distasteful to "bribe" such a self centered and barbaric regime, unfortunately, at the moment, this represents one of those situatons where there are no good alternatives. A military action, while not impossible if absolutely necessary, would quite difficult to conduct in an effective way until we can resolve several situations in the Middle East. We are spread too thin. To be credible, we need a larger armed force.
The bottom line is, currently, we need to continue making clear (as I am sure has been already conveyed) that any circulation of nuclear materials to a party that uses it against us or an ally will invite a devastating response. We may not put the genie in the bottle again, but at least Kim Jong-il (unlike, perhaps, Iran's Ahmadinejad) appears rational enough to be deterrable.
The bottom line is, currently, we need to continue making clear (as I am sure has been already conveyed) that any circulation of nuclear materials to a party that uses it against us or an ally will invite a devastating response. We may not put the genie in the bottle again, but at least Kim Jong-il (unlike, perhaps, Iran's Ahmadinejad) appears rational enough to be deterrable.
The weak link in diplomacy efforts to resolve the impasse lies with South Korea. South Korea has been the enabler of North Korea.
The South Korean public believes, in their heart of hearts, that South Korea and North Korea are destined, one day, to reunify under one government.
The aid that South Korea sends (which props up the Kim Jong-Il regime) is viewed by South Koreans as preparatory for reunification, as they draw parallels between their own aspirations and the reunification of East and West Germany under one German government. South Korea has taken notice of the strains caused by East German absorption. Though West Germany was more prosperous than South Korea, and East Germany was more prosperous than North Korea, grafting East Germany and West Germany was still quite a struggle due to the economic imbalance between the two halves.
South Koreans feel that they need to start working now to help develop North Korea to lessen the imbalance between the two halves. Some South Korean business conglomerates have invested in North Korea, and bribes flowing from South Korean businesses to South Korean government officials are commonplace, thus the South Korean government is loathe to take a hard line against North Korea, since the corporations bribing the government would fear losing their investments in North Korea if Kim Jong-Il decided to retaliate against such a more hard line stance.
South Koreans ought to consider that Kim Jong-Il's aspirations toward reunification would more closely resemble the reunification of North and South Vietnam, rather than East and West Germany. Somehow, South Koreans have not given any thought to the Vietnamese precedent for reunification.
Some of the more astute South Korean foreign affairs observers do, however, question the government's strategy, and, in the interest of twisting the arm of North Korea to comply with prior agreements, they do advocate for taking positions more closely resembling the stances of Japan and the United States. They are aware, though, that the South Korean government, the South Korean business community, and the South Korean public opinion, are not likely to retreat from sending aid to the North, thus continuing to enable the Kim Jong-Il regime.
If South Korea aligned itself more closely with the no-nonsense stances of Japan and the United States, I have no doubt we could make much more headway in negotiations with North Korea.
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