SCO and Growing Cohesion

The growth and potential cohesiveness of the SCO will be one of the big geopolitical stories of the next 5-10 years.  If SCO solidifies and grows, it will lead to friction with America in Central Asia, especially given the fact that America is not going to back out of the region anytime soon.  This could lend itself to increasing friction with Russia and maybe China .  While I have doubts it will ever be enough to result in anything too substantial happening given the joint counter-terrorist agenda we have with Russia , the symbiotic economic relationship with China , and the historical unease between Russia and China ; there always remains the potential that such a competition could have lingering and unanticipated impacts.  In addition, a unified bloc to the east of Europe could make the Europeans nervous over time. 

In the end, the story of the next decade will be American efforts to maintain, for the most part, the current power structure of the world, while Russia and China (with other Third World countries likely lining up with them) looking to shift the balance to the east.  This does not mean war or even a trade war, but it will create friction that could flare up under unforeseen occurrences.  While that has always been a possibility, a growing China and resurgent Russia acting to some degree in concert, will make that more possible and something that must be game planned for in the military, economic, and diplomatic spheres. 

 

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