Video from Foreign Policy Magazine with several experts discussing the likelihood of war with China over Taiwan .  Basically the experts say yes we would.  I agree.  We have committed to the “One China” policy which says that we support the eventual, peaceful reunification of Taiwan with mainland China .  However, we oppose any effort by China to use military force to accomplish this end.  We sell weapons to Taiwan to support this policy.  Meanwhile, China keeps building missiles across the Taiwan Strait and rattles its saber as the fairly aggressive President of Taiwan, Chen Shui-ban pushes for referendums and such seeking possible independence.

For China this is a make or break issue.  The legitimacy of the ruling Party is on line here.  They have spent years getting countries around the world to not officially recognize the sovereignty of the Taiwanese government and to support the “One China” policy as well.  This is something they feel they can’t relent on or their edifice of power could collapse around them.  For the US , if we fail to act in the event of a military altercation, our word is meaningless and all of our allies will come to question us.  The potential for Japan , South Korea , Middle Eastern “allies”, and any number of other countries that count on our willingness to use force as a stabilizing factor in their relationships with neighbors to recalculate their relation to us and their own military positions would be too great to ignore.  It would mean the end of our position as an arbiter in practically any serious dispute between other countries and thus a rapid decline in our power.  It would also firmly entrench China as the ascendant global power in the wake of our decline.  This would be much more serious than any loss of prestige and respect we have suffered is a result of invading Iraq .  Consequently, we would intervene, no doubt about no matter what any Presidential candidate might say.

Also, good article by both Zbigniew Brzezinski, former President Carter’s National Security Advisor and arch-realist and John Mearsheimer, one of the most preeminent realist scholars in America today from the University of Chicago .  They debate the prospects for conflict.  Brzezinski thinks we can cooperate, Mearsheimer thinks its inevitable we will fight.  I believe anything is possible, nothing inevitable.  However, chances of conflict are certainly greater than many in the business community and economic determinists believe.  Pride, honor, and fear still drive human behavior more than almost any other emotions, Thucydides would acknowledge that over 2,000 years ago.